The hottest in November 2007, the national polyest

November 2007 National polyester chip production, sales and inventory operation overview

I. November crude oil market overview

international crude oil prices in November were affected by many factors, with a relatively fast fluctuation frequency and a large range. 14. Report generation in the first 14 days of this month: the price of crude oil continued to rise in ten days after the U-disk was connected to the computer, but under the influence of adverse factors such as OPEC's production increase plan and the international energy department's expectation that the oil demand will decline significantly, the increase in the international crude oil price has been significantly reduced, and the price fell sharply in the following period of time. As of the 10th, the price of crude oil futures in New York was $97/barrel, up about $1 from the beginning of the month. Brent crude oil futures price was $93/barrel, up about $5 from the beginning of the month. Crude oil prices fell sharply around the 13th, with crude oil futures prices in New York falling from $97/barrel to $91/barrel, down $6/barrel, or 6.18%. Brent crude oil futures fell $4/barrel, down 4.30%. However, due to the continued slowdown of domestic economic growth in the United States, the aggravation of the credit crisis, the depreciation of the dollar, the increased demand for heating fuel and gasoline in winter, frequent accidents of refining equipment in the Gulf region, and 4 Working size: diameter 160mm × Under the influence of various factors such as the decline of 44mm domestic crude oil inventory in the United States, the crude oil futures price rose sharply. As of the 20th, the crude oil futures price in New York rose to $98/barrel, and the Brent crude oil futures price rose to $96/barrel, all hitting a new high in 2007. Compared with the previous stage, it increased by $7/barrel, or 7.69% and 7.86% respectively. However, under the influence of OPEC production increase news, the rapid elimination of the Gulf oil refining accident, and the gradual easing of the geopolitical crisis between the United States and Iran, Iraq and other factors, crude oil prices fell again rapidly from around the 26th. By the end of the month, the price of crude oil futures in New York closed at $92/barrel, and the price of Brent crude oil futures closed at $90/barrel, down $6/barrel from the peak, down 6.12% and 6.67% respectively. After the sharp rise and fall of international crude oil prices this month, the future price is expected to run smoothly for a period of time due to positive and negative factors such as the increase in demand for heating in winter, the continuous decline in global crude oil inventories, the news of OPEC production increase, and the easing of the Political Bureau of the Middle East. The price will fluctuate again due to the increase of winter demand and the OPEC production increase plan, but the range will not be very large

market overview of relevant chemical products in February and November

(I) PX

the PX market in November showed an overall trend of first rising and then declining. All metal bushings have a longer service life. Driven by the sharp rise in crude oil prices in the first ten days, naphtha and MX prices also showed an upward trend. In particular, naphtha prices rose sharply in a row. As of around the 12th, naphtha prices reached US $850/ton, a record high. Compared with the beginning of the month, the increase was $40/ton, or 4.94%. The soaring naphtha and MX prices have given PX great support from the cost side, and the market of downstream polyester products has warmed up in the same period. Under the simultaneous action of two positive factors, PX prices have increased slightly. Although affected by small fluctuations in crude oil prices in the middle of the year, PX prices also rose as the crude oil market rose again. As of the 25th, the PX price rose to $1130/ton, up $20/ton from the beginning of the month, or 1.80%. At the end of the month, affected by the decline of the crude oil market again, the PX price retreated to the level at the beginning of the month. In the future, PX prices are greatly affected by crude oil prices. Recently, crude oil prices have shown a downward trend, and naphtha and MX prices have also been adjusted by small fluctuations, losing cost support for PX. The downstream polyester product market has not changed to a large extent, the market is depressed, the production and sales are not smooth, and the factory inventory pressure is great. Therefore, from a comprehensive perspective, the late market of PX is not optimistic, and there will still be small adjustments

(II) PTA

in November, PTA prices generally rose first and then fell, with continuous fluctuations. In the first ten days, affected by the rise in crude oil prices and the improvement in the market of downstream polyester products, both the internal and external prices of PTA rose slightly. As of the 12th, the PTA internal price rose to 7500 yuan/ton, up 400 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month, or 5.63%. The external market rose to $865/ton, up $45/ton from the beginning of the month, or 5.49%. Then, by the end of the last ten days, PTA prices showed signs of decline due to the decline in crude oil prices and the downturn in the downstream polyester product market. As of the 20th, PTA prices fell by 300 yuan/ton compared with the first ten days, with a decrease of 4.00%. The external price fell to 855 US dollars/ton, down about 10 US dollars/ton from the previous ten days, or 1.16%. From late to the end of the month, PTA prices have experienced a round of ups and downs with the fluctuations of the oil market, but the range of ups and downs has eased compared with the previous period. By the end of the month, PTA prices had returned to the level at the beginning of the month after the rise and fall of this month, and finally closed at 7100 yuan/ton. The outer market closed at $830/ton. In the future, due to the fact that the market situation of downstream polyester products cannot be fully solved in the near future, and the impact of OPEC production increase news on crude oil prices, there has been a sharp decline. Therefore, under the influence of two negative factors, the future market of PTA is not optimistic. （3） In MEG, MEG prices generally showed a continuous sharp rise and fall trend in November. MEG prices rose sharply in the middle and early ten days due to the sharp rise in crude oil prices, the recovery of the downstream polyester product market, the low MEG inventory of downstream polyester plants affected by cost factors in the early stage, and the quotation of three major mainstream contract suppliers, meglobal, shell and SABIC, increased to $1590/ton. As of around the 15th, MEG prices rose to 15800 yuan/ton, up 2600 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month, or 19.69%. Subsequently, MEG prices fell sharply due to the decline in crude oil prices and the callback of downstream polyester product prices. As of around the 22nd, it fell to 13700 yuan/ton, down 2100 yuan/ton or 13.29% from the previous period. Then, by the end of the month, affected by the rise and fall of crude oil prices and the fluctuation of downstream polyester product prices, MEG market experienced another rise and fall process. However, due to the small fluctuation of oil price this time, the price of downstream polyester products gradually stabilized, so the fluctuation of MEG price this time is small. MEG will continue to fall in the future due to the impact of two factors: the possible continuous decline in the upstream crude oil price and the continuous downturn in the downstream polyester product market, which will lead to the reduction in the demand for raw materials due to the shutdown and burden reduction of the factory

March and November polyester product market overview

(I) polyester chips

1. Market Overview

according to the statistics of China Textile Circulation Association (sample enterprises), 446779 tons of polyester chips were produced this month, an increase of 38075 tons over the previous month, an increase of 9.32%. The year-on-year increase was 57405 tons, an increase of 14.74%. This month, 448373 tons of polyester chips were sold, an increase of 45028 tons over the previous month, an increase of 11.16%. The year-on-year increase was 41171 tons, an increase of 10.11%. The inventory was 91989 tons, a decrease of 2096 tons or 2.23% over the previous month. The year-on-year increase was 9512 tons, an increase of 11.53%. The production and sales rate this month was 100.36%, an increase of 1.67 percentage points over the previous month; It is also the difficulty of this system, with a year-on-year decrease of 4.22 percentage points. The inventory level was 20.59%, down 2.43 percentage points from the previous month. A year-on-year decrease of 0.59 percentage points

the overall market of polyester chips rose first and then fell this month. In the middle and early ten days, driven by the rise in crude oil prices, the prices of PTA and MEG raw materials rose, and the downstream polyester fiber Market warmed up. Both production and sales volumes and market conditions showed an upward trend. As of the 20th, the price of polyester chips rose to 11900 yuan/ton, up 700 yuan/ton or 6.25% from the beginning of the month. In the last ten days, affected by factors such as the decline of the raw material market caused by the fluctuation of crude oil price and the pullback of the downstream polyester fiber market to the early downturn, the price of polyester chips fell significantly. As of the end of the month, the price of polyester chips closed at 11600 yuan/ton, down about 300 yuan/ton from the middle of the year, a decrease of 2.52%

in terms of the future market, the future market trend of polyester chips is mainly determined by the upstream crude oil price, PTA, MEG raw material price and the downstream polyester fiber market. The future crude oil market and polyester fiber market both show a downward trend, so the future market of polyester chips will also be affected by it, and the following market should be dominated

2. Sales flow

according to the statistics of China Textile Circulation Association (sample enterprises), the sales of polyester chips this month are mainly concentrated in Jiangsu, Zhejiang and export. The inflow of Zhejiang Province this month increased by 26764 tons, an increase of 21.47%. The inflow of Jiangsu Province decreased by 4646 tons from the previous month, a decrease of 3.48%. The export volume decreased by 2436 tons, a decrease of 5.22%. The inflow in other regions is relatively small, and the inflow of polyester chips in Qinghai and Ningxia is blank this month

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