The hottest methanol maintains a wide range of osc

2022-08-18
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Methanol dimension selection servo system holds wide oscillation market

methanol maintains wide oscillation market

May 29, 2019

marginal improvement of supply and demand

recently, under the influence of factors such as the unexpected shutdown of Iran's kavi methanol plant, the possible restart of the methanol to olefin plant in Datang Duolun in June, and the increased load of Jiutai energy MTO, the demand side of methanol has improved compared with the previous period. However, the oversupply situation still exists, and it is difficult for the methanol futures price to rise

methanol port inventory accumulated again

due to the significant increase in arrivals since late May, methanol port inventory picked up after falling for four consecutive weeks last week. According to jinlianchuang data, as of May 23, 2019, the total social inventory of methanol in the two major ports in East China and South China was 661500 tons, an increase of 15500 tons over the previous week. Under the expectation that the import volume will rise again in May, the port inventory will face the risk of recovering again after going through phased destocking. On Friday evening, it was reported that the 2.3 million ton methanol plant in Kawi, Iran stopped unexpectedly, and the futures market immediately rose sharply, triggering speculation about the decline in imports. However, Kawi expects the overhaul to take about 2 weeks, and it may be restarted at the end of this week, which will have a limited impact on imports. From the balance sheet, the rebound in inventory indicates that demand has weakened, and the market situation of methanol oversupply will continue. Based on the analysis of the current market situation, the port inventory will continue to accumulate in June, significantly suppressing the forward price of methanol

mto is less likely to be put into production in a large scale. Compared with the electronic universal testing machine, the electro-hydraulic servo universal material testing machine with more than 30t has many sets of methanol recently. When the sample is stretched, the MTO device is expected to resume production or increase the load. The market is full of expectations for this, but the author believes that the possibility of significantly increasing the output is small. Take Datang Duolun as an example. Last Friday, Datang Duolun in Inner Mongolia reported the resumption of production of methanol to olefin units and the reduction of methanol export sales, which became an important factor driving the rapid rise of futures prices. According to the author's understanding, Datang Duolun 460000 ton methanol to olefin plant has been in shutdown since April 2018, while 1.68 million ton coal to methanol plant has been operating independently, and methanol has been sold externally, Weng Yunxuan said. Datang Duolun's methanol to olefin products are mainly polypropylene. When the price of polypropylene is low, the profit of producing polypropylene is not as good as that of directly selling methanol, so the enterprise chose to sell methanol for most of last year. Under the condition that the current polypropylene price is significantly lower than that of last year, it is still very difficult for Datang Duolun methanol to olefin plant to resume operation. There are also market rumors that its olefin plant is only briefly started up

similarly, the 600000 ton methanol to olefin unit of Jiutai energy is planned to increase the load in June, and the 600000 ton methanol to olefin unit of Nanjing Chengzhi phase II is planned to be put into operation in July, but the specific production progress is disturbed by too many uncertainties. Under the current low profit level of methanol to olefins, the stable operation or commissioning of these units is still in doubt. In addition, the 300000 ton methanol to olefin unit of Yangmei Hengtong plans to be overhauled in June, which will offset part of the methanol demand. Therefore, there is still great uncertainty about the increase in demand for methanol due to the resumption of production or load increase of multiple sets of MTOs hyped in the market

the cost support of coal to methanol in the mainland is still

the price of thermal coal has been stable recently, and the price of methanol is close to the cost of coal, so the cost support effect is obvious. At present, the average cost of the mainland is around 2380 yuan/ton, so the methanol price has stopped falling recently when it is adjusted to about 2360 yuan/ton, and the role of cost support cannot be ignored. As the methanol price fell sharply in the fourth quarter of last year, the profits of coal chemical enterprises also fell sharply. Especially since the first quarter of this year, the profits of coal based methanol enterprises in Shandong and Henan have been maintained near the break even line. If the methanol price fell sharply again, it would inevitably lead to the shutdown and overhaul of coal chemical enterprises, which limited the decline of methanol prices to a certain extent

to sum up, with the disappearance of the hype about the positive factors, the methanol market is facing the risk of the recovery of import volume and the accumulation of port inventory, and the driving force for the rise of methanol futures price is obviously insufficient. At the same time, considering the cost support factors, the space for methanol futures price to fall is also limited

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