The hottest oil price fell sharply, and Trump's ma

2022-09-23
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According to Reuters, citing OPEC sources, in order to curb the decline in oil prices, the member states of the organization are increasingly inclined to extend the production reduction agreement beyond June this year to reduce crude oil supply and restore market balance, but Russia and other non OPEC oil producing countries still need to continue to participate in the production reduction plan

since the OPEC production reduction agreement was reached in November last year, the international oil price has rebounded all the way, and rose to an 18 month high in January this year. However, in the later stage, due to the uneven implementation of the agreement by the participating countries, the United States and other oil producing countries took the opportunity to increase production. In addition, there are doubts on the demand side, resulting in the crude oil price falling by more than 10% since the beginning of the year

the sharp fall in oil prices has poured cold water on the market

since the U

according to the report recently released by Guojin securities, this round of global "re inflation" cycle began in June 2016, and was first driven by the rebound of energy bottoming. It was boosted by the G20 summit in September 2016, which turned to the statement of fiscal policy. It was further stimulated by Trump's election, and market sentiment was stimulated. The G7 economies led to a rebound in demand, improved global trade and a rebound in industrial output

but in recent weeks, under the fall of oil prices again, the re inflation transaction in the market seems to be subsiding. Generally speaking, as the main expenditure of global consumption and industry, crude oil plays a key role in global inflation expectations. Some people began to reflect on whether the re inflation transaction supported by "trump" expectations could be sustained without the factor of oil price

"on the one hand, the market has formed the expectation that interest rates will rise and trump will increase fiscal stimulus. At the same time, oil prices have also supported the expectation, so the trend of oil prices is very important." Danielmorris, a senior strategist at BNP Paribas' asset management company, told Bloomberg recently. He also said that he was not particularly optimistic about the future trend of bulk commodities, including crude oil. After the U.S. stock market hit new highs, the company was reducing the allocation of stocks

"trump deal" may ebb in the second quarter

"I have doubts about the reinflation transaction. If we want to achieve real reinflation on the existing basis, all these may lead to printing problem inflation, such as increasing the growth rate of the U.S. economy to 4% and significantly increasing inflation. This requires the policy layout of the U.S. government, but it faces a very big political challenge. We will face a lot of political obstacles through large-scale fiscal stimulus spending. The tax reform policy judges lithium battery technology Especially for the 3-yuan battery technology. I think recently, this obstacle is on the rise. Another important support for the re inflation transaction is the need for the cooperation of monetary policy. However, according to the statement of the Federal Reserve last week, it seems to be very sensitive to the upward prospect of growth rate and will not be too eager to raise interest rates, but the Federal Reserve is unlikely to lag behind the interest rate curve. " Timcondon, chief Asia economist of ING Bank, said in an interview with 21st Century Business Herald on March 21

Condon believes that trump was lucky to enter the white house when the U.S. economic recovery strengthened. Recently released data showed that the central position of the ISM manufacturing index line adjustment device for the length adjustment sensor of the flexible rope used to close the house in February was 57.7, a new high in 30 months. The index has entered the expansion field since breaking through 50 in September 2016

last week, the Federal Reserve announced an interest rate hike, which cast a "confidence vote" on the US economy. After the news, the market positively digested the Fed's interest rate hike, and global stock markets rose collectively

Condon also pointed out that the market price has reflected the expectation of re inflation, but Trump's fiscal plan will face many political obstacles. The report of Guojin Securities pointed out that at present, the market's response to the "trump slogan" lacking details has become weaker and weaker, and the ingredients exceeding expectations are gradually disappearing, "trump trading" may decline in the second quarter

"we don't need a story of American re inflation expectations to be optimistic about global risky assets. I am optimistic about risky assets because the global economy is recovering. In terms of the current developed market stock market, it is 10% higher than the 2015 high, while the emerging market is 10% lower than the 2015 high. I think this gap will continue to narrow down next, and there is still much room for emerging market stock markets to rise." Condon said

Condon also said, "The global economy has experienced a period of high growth rate before, and now it can be said that this period is over. The high-speed economic growth has also generated great pressure in the global economy, and the rise of populist politics is a major performance. At present, when we are discussing the trend of anti globalization, it should be said that the pressure should be gradually released, but because the global political cycle is far behind the economic cycle, politics will be in the future for some time It will bring pressure to the global economy. "

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